1/16/19 AMD 20.40 to 19.73

AMD down on light volume. No reason. Some report of Intel buying AMD, which is nonsense. Another rumor of Intel luring Lisa Su over for CEO, unlikely IMO.

Seems like market is waiting for ER, which should be Jan 29 Tuesday. Guidance was $1.45 B. Based on AMD Jan 2019 Investor Slides, still guiding mid-20% growth over 2017, I am thinking $1.55 (24%) or $1.6 B (25%). If $1.45 B, only 22%, which is NOT mid 20%. If Intel chip shortage is indeed true, then AMD can increase mobile/desktop CPU shipments and get that additional $150 mil.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4233608-amd-earnings-time-shine

Business Quant posted an article about AMD earning. Thinks it will beat guidance based on ramping up to meet Intel’s shortage. I agree with that. JustAsking posted the same argument as mine, that AMD should grow 24% in order to meet mid-20% quote. That would be $1.55B. Adaveinus says:

“Q4 2018 revenue will be come near to higher range of guidance at around $1475m to $1500m” He’s so sure of himself!

Key is Q1 2019 guidance. Can it be more than $1.65 B, which was Q1 2018? I know the next gen consoles are not due until 2020, but unless it’s holidays 2020, then some revenue recognition may occur sooner in 2019 due to new accounting rules.

AdoredTV in his twits mentioned a slew of leaks coming in Feb, which will be welcomed. But he also says possibly on Jan 19, which is this Saturday.

On CPU side, Epyc2 (Rome) and Ryzen 3rd gen are both now mid-2019, This is good.

7 nm consumer GPU, available Feb 7, 2019

On GPU side, we have Radeon 7, which is $700, competes with RTX 2080, using failed MI 60. Rumor saying only 5000 units, AMD sells at loss. AMD dispelled this rumor, saying will be available from AMD and AIB partners on Feb 7. (Edit: Could have been sold as MI50, which would be higher priced?)

Vega 64 and 56. Ok.

Radeon RX 590, good. 580, 570 are fine.

Channel should be emptying now of the miners’ cards.

Upcoming Navi, I am guessing announced at Computex? Whole line up will replace all cards except Radeon 7. Prices will kill Nvidia.

By mid 2019, rumors of next gen consoles should be leaking out. ?Holidays 2019 vs 2020? I am thinking if Navi was developed for Sony PS 5, then if Navi comes out in late 2019, why wouldn’t PS5 come out as well? Same thing for next gen XBOX.

3rd gen Ryzen Mobile should be out by Jan 2020, if not earlier. If Holidays 2019, then perhaps MS Surface and Apple MacBook Air can use such APU? This will be very big. Same chiplets, just a mobile I/O die and a gpu die.

So mid 2019 would be good. By Jan 2020 should be very good.

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