1/29/19 AMD ER and CC, up to 21.00 AH!




Whew! I am quite relieved. AMD Q4 came in at $1.42 B, on the low end of their guidance. In comparison, Nvidia will miss their previously lowered guidance by $500 millions. 2018 net income was $0.46. The keys are:

OEMs are getting onboard. 30% more Ryzen systems in 2019, with 50% more notebooks.

Epyc sold well, shipment doubled from Q3!
Data center GPU sold well.

Epyc and Instinct combined to account for mid-teens of total revenue. So around $210 millions?

AMD thinks this is quite a milestone, deserving of special mention. Interestingly, when pressed, Lisa Su said CPU and GPU each accounted for half of that revenue.

Gaming GPU channel getting better, should be done with used mining cards by Q2. She also said Q2 gaming GPU sale will be increased over Q1 sequentially.

Console sales will be down because of end of cycle. For me, this is not a problem because that will be remedied by the launch of next gen consoles, in 2020?

So the headwind will be gone soon.

7 nm CPU and GPU will be launched throughout the year. Given low guidance of H1, AMD is still guiding for high single digit growth over 2018. Even at $7.0-7.1 B, AMD must have a spectacular H2. Plus, AMD is very likely guiding very conservatively, so this number should be even higher.

Gross margin will be 41% in Q1, then heading higher.

Adoption of Rome will be faster than Naples.

WSA is renegotiated. No penalty or royalty for AMD to get 7 nm or lower from TSMC or anyone else. AMD will get 12 nm or higher from GF. All is well. This is great news as AMD will no longer pay money to GF in order to go outside of GF.

Everything is pointing to an excellent H2 2019 and a super 2020!


AMD did not blame slowdown and China! Intel and Nvidia both blamed China and general slowdown, and both are guiding lower for 2019. Intel said server CPU is slowed, as chips are still being “consumed”. Nvidia said several GPU deals did not close in Q4. Meanwhile, Lisa Su said several large server GPU deals were made in Q4. Now it is apparent that AMD IS taking business away from both Intel and Nvidia, despite the excuses and lies they come up with. This is a game changer!

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