5/29/20 AMD Marches On

So much had happened since my last blog on March 17, 2020. AMD’s share price had recovered into the 50’s again. Q1 ER had come and went. Guidance for 2020 remains largely intact (20%+ increase over 2019), though with a bit more caution due to macro elements. This is in sharp contrast to both Intel and Nvidia, with no full year guidance. In today’s harsh environment, the fact that AMD can continue to project growth is an excellent sign, and testament to the fact that AMD can grow by taking market shares in a very large TAM.

Renoir had launched and it has been a success!

Asus ROG Zephyrus G14 received superb reviews, in the Verge, and in PC World. There is also the G15 model, with a larger screen. The Zephyrus G14 was sold out very quickly at BestBuy.com, but was restocked quickly. It then sold out quickly again. Currently it remains in stock, here, which shows that the supply chain is intact.

Dell had released G5 15 SE, with both Ryzen 4000 APU and Radeon RX 5600M, complete with the SmartShift technology. HotHardware.com gave it a great review, here.

Lenovo had also release IdeaPad 5 in both 14ā€ and 15ā€ models, featuring Renoir. Lenovo is also launching the Yoga Slim 7 as well, in the ultra thin category.

Acer and MSI are both offering multiple models with Renoir also.

Since laptops is a bigger segment than desktops, it is extremely important for AMD to finally get competitive with their outstanding Renoir lineup, detailed by VideoCardz, here. OEMs are coming around to AMD finally!

Here is a link to the AMD Q1 Earnings Call transcript, at Seeking Alpha.

Here is a link to Lisa Su’s presentation at the Bernstein Conference, dated May 28th 2020, also at Seeking Alpha.

Both are worthwhile to review in detail.

COVID-19 had mostly run its course through Europe. It remains to be seen what the second wave will look like.

In the US, it is likely to still get worse. There is a huge segment of the population who are quite anti-mask. The US continues to lack domestic travel restriction, and the desire to re-open the economy without adequate testing and tracking capability may well result in a big second wave. Alternatively, the US may not even get a second wave since the first wave may not be allowed to recede. One can then expect a very prolonged COVID-19 crisis. Nonetheless, as long as the healthcare system is not overwhelmed, then the economy may be able to chug along, albeit slowly.

Asia seems to be doing quite well now. Japan was a surprise. I had thought Japan may be hit hard, after the cancellation of Olympics the situation appeared to worsen significantly. Yet after six weeks it’s looking really good. The Japanese has no problem following health protocols and have no issues with wearing masks!

The deteriorating US-China relationship is in focus. Hong Kong and Taiwan are both key issues. TSMC has agreed to build a fab in Arizona, with 5 nm technology, coming online in 2024 at 20K wafers a month. US continues the effort to kill Huawei. All of these have bearing on AMD.

However, despite all of the above, AMD will still grow this year and in the foreseeable future. The road map is simply too good!

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