1/19/19 Saturday

At 3 AM AdoredTV posted his new video.

TLDW: Problem with Navi in late 2018, was sent back to TSMC for re-tape. One to 2 months prior to CES, AMD decided to add Radeon 7 and postpone Navi to mid 2019. This was a change of plan. The worrisome point: AMD is selling Radeon 7 at a loss since cost is $750.

My take: Radeon 7 does serve a gap. 2019 Navi is aimed at mid to low range. Top range Navi not due until 2020. So Radeon 7 gives AMD bragging right to first 7 nm consumer GPU. At 16 GB of VRAM, Radeon 7 is good for content creation/workstation. However, same spec as MI50. MI50 is higher priced. So AMD is making less money than it could have……

On second thought, it makes sense for AMD to forego Radeon 7 at CES, IF they had Navi ready. Having such a dominant lineup of Navi would be enough, no need to go after the very high end. (Great performance and low price) But since they don’t have Navi until mid 2019, might as well go higher and fill a gap (niche).

If they postponed Navi in November 2018, it’s also possible that AMD sees the channel still full, and doesn’t want to release Navi too early and not clear the channel?

With Ryzen 3rd gen and Navi contributing to Q3 2019, how good/bad are Q1 and Q2? Q3 should be great, like over $2 B. Key is how good are Ryzen Mobile 2nd gen, Ryzen 2nd gen, Epyc 1 and current GPU lineup sell, considering the channel should be improved after Q1. If 2018 was the year of ramping, then AMD should ramp with these 2nd gen stuff!

Leaks coming out before May hopefully will generate enough enthusiasm before Q3 guidance, which will occur at Q2 ER.

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