1/28/19 AMD 21.93 to 20.18


Nvidia issued warning to their upcoming ER. Nvidia now says revenue will be only $2.2 B, down from previously guided $2.7 B, which was already lower than the expected $3.4 B back in November 2018.

Margin will be down from 62.5% to 56%. Data center deals did not close. Turing cards did not sell well. Nvidia also blamed China slow down. However, if China slowed down to 6.6 % growth, instead of 6.7 or 6.8%, how does that cause Nvidia to lose nearly 20% of their revenue? This does not add up.

Nvidia down big, 15% to $136. AMD got dragged down as well. If AMD was allowed to report a decent quarter tomorrow, followed by this Nvidia warning, then it would be obvious that AMD does not share Nvidia’s problems. So Nvidia warns one day before AMD’s ER, hoping to drag AMD down.

AMD already guided down to account for the loss of ALL crypto mining revenue, plus the ill effect from channel filled with used miner cards. If anything, there should be surprise on the upside due to increased CPU sale from Intel shortage in Q4. If AMD is going to report less than $1.4 B, then AMD would have warned. Lisa would not be so smug during CES.


Good interview with Lisa Su.


In a nutshell, AMD will miss because Nvidia will miss big. Also, data center business will be terrible because Intel and Nvidia both are doing less well. Never mind that maybe AMD is taking business away from both Intel and Nvidia?

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